Posts
It is intially very difficult to say from the primaries. Obama though defeats alomost all primaries in Democratic nomination, we feel Mrs. Hillary Clinton will ultimately win the race. However, it is yet decide by US poplar votes who will seat in the Presidential Chair in Jan 2009. Can you tell? or gues?
United States presidential election, 2008
From us-presidentialelection.blogspot.com, the free encyclopedia
 |
This article or section contains
information about an upcoming or ongoing election in the United States. Content may change as the election approaches. |
 |
| ‹
2004 2012
› |
||||
|
United States presidential election, 2008 |
||||
|
November 4, 2008 |
||||
|
||||
|
|
||||
-
March 7:
Wikinews interviews U.S. Green Party presidential candidate
Cynthia McKinney -
March 6:
George W. Bush endorses John McCain for US Presidency -
March 5:
Wikinews interviews Anthony Maki -
March 5:
McCain clinches Republican nomination as Huckabee concedes -
March 3:
Wikinews interviews Frank Moore, independent candidate for US
President
The United States presidential election of 2008, scheduled for
November 4,
2008, will be the 56th consecutive
quadrennial
election for
president and
vice president of the
United States. It will coincide with the
2008 Senate elections,
House of Representatives elections, and
gubernatorial elections, as well as many state and local elections.
As in the
2004 presidential election, the allocation of electoral votes to
each state will be based partially on the
2000 Census. The president-elect and vice president-elect are
scheduled to be inaugurated on
January 20,
2009.
2008 presidential election characteristics
First election without incumbents in the
primaries since 1928
When a United States President leaves office, his vice president is
usually considered a leading candidate and likely nominee to succeed
him. In 2001, Vice President
Dick Cheney announced that he would never run for president, a
statement he reiterated in 2004. While appearing on
Fox News Sunday, Cheney stated: "I will say just as hard as I
possibly know how to say...
If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve."[1]
The 2008 election therefore marks the first time since the
1928 election in which there is neither an
incumbent president nor an incumbent vice president running for
their party's nomination in the presidential election.[2]
The
1952 election was the last time neither the incumbent president nor
incumbent vice president ran in the general election, after President
Harry S. Truman bowed out following his loss in the New Hampshire
primary and Vice President
Alben Barkley then sought but failed to win the Democratic
nomination.[3]
(Truman's name was on the
New Hampshire primary ballot but he did not campaign. He lost to
Tennessee Senator
Estes Kefauver and formally
withdrew his name from consideration.)
In the three most recent presidential
administrations featuring an outgoing two-term president — those of
Eisenhower,
Reagan, and
Clinton — the incumbent vice president has immediately thereafter
run for president. (Richard
Nixon lost the
1960 election,
George H. W. Bush won the
1988 election, and
Al Gore
lost the
2000 election.)[4][5]
In the
1968 election,
Lyndon B. Johnson initially decided to seek re-election. He entered
the New Hampshire primary and won. However, he had a national poll
conducted, which yielded results not in his favor. In a nationally
televised speech, Johnson announced to the public that he would not seek
re-election. Incumbent Vice President
Hubert Humphrey ran instead and was the eventual
Democratic Party nominee.
During this period, several former vice presidents have sought the
office of president as non-incumbents.
Henry A. Wallace was the
Progressive Party nominee in
1948. Nixon was elected in 1968.
Walter Mondale received his party's nomination in
1984.
Dan
Quayle was unsuccessful in bids for nomination in
1996 and 2000.[5]
The long campaign
The 2008 nomination campaign can be divided into four phases: the
pre-primary campaign, January, Super Tuesday, and the Spring.
The pre-primary campaign
"Front runner" status is dependent on the news agency reporting, but
by October 2007, the consensus listed about six candidates as leading
the pack. For example, CNN listed Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Rudolph
Giuliani, Barack Obama, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney as the front
runners.
The Washington Post listed Clinton, Edwards and Obama as the
Democratic frontrunners, "leading in polls and fundraising and well
ahead of the other major candidates".[6]
MSNBC's Chuck Todd christened Giuliani and John McCain the Republican
front runners after the second Republican presidential debate.[7]
Three candidates, Clinton, Obama, and Romney, raised over $20 million
in the first three months of 2007, and three others, Edwards, Giuliani,
and McCain, raised over $12 million, the next closest candidate was
Bill Richardson, who raised over $6 million.[8]
In the third quarter of 2007, the top four GOP fund raisers were Romney,
Giuliani, Thompson, and Paul.[9]
Paul set the GOP record for the largest online single day fund raising
on November 5, 2007.[10][11]
Hillary Clinton set the Democratic record for largest single day fund
raising on June 30, 2007.[12]
The primaries
Delegates to national party
conventions are selected through direct
primary elections, state
caucuses,
and state conventions. The process continues through June, but in
previous cycles, the Democratic and Republican candidates were
effectively chosen by the March primaries. This is due to winning
candidates collecting a majority of committed delegates to win their
party's nomination. Most third parties select delegates to their
national conventions through state conventions.
Both parties have adopted rules to prevent early primaries and have
acted to strip some or all delegates from states that have disobeyed.
Several, including larger states such as
Florida
and
Michigan, did so, setting up possible credentials fights at the
conventions late in the summer.
January 2008
Around the first of the year, the longstanding consensus that the
so-called "chattering classes" had agreed to began to fall apart.
Support for
Mike Huckabee and
Barack Obama began rising in the polls, passing longtime front
runners Romney and Clinton for first place in Iowa, and suddenly John
McCain displaced Rudy Guiliani and Romney as the front-runner in New
Hampshire. When Iowa held its caucuses at last, the two upstart
campaigns were triumphant.
While Huckabee had little money and was hoping for a third place
finish, Obama was suddenly the new front runner in New Hampshire and the
Clinton Campaign was struggling. However, in a turning point for her
campaign, Mrs. Clinton shed tears in a public interview broadcast live
on TV.[13][14]
By the end of the day, Clinton won the primary by a couple of points,
contrary to the predictions of pollsters who had her as much as twelve
points behind on the day of the primary itself. McCain also staged a
turnaround victory, having been written off by the pundits and in single
digits less than a month before.
[15][16]
With the Republicans stripping Michigan and Florida of half their
delegates, the Republican race was based there, while the Democrats
focused on Nevada and South Carolina, which were given special
permission to have early contests. In South Carolina Obama got 55% of
the vote. Meanwhile, McCain managed a small victory in South Carolina,
setting him up for a larger and more important victory in Florida soon
after.
February 2008
On February 3 on the
UCLA campus, celebrities
Oprah Winfrey,
Caroline Kennedy and
Stevie Wonder, among others, made appearances to show support for
Barack Obama in a rally led by
Michelle Obama.[17]
Though Obama's poll numbers increased after this event, putting him only
2% behind Clinton, he ended up losing California by 10%. Analysts cited
surprisingly large Latino turnout as the deciding factor.[18]
By February 4, it was apparent that McCain might be able to wrap up
the nomination quickly while the 22 primaries and caucuses on the
Democratic side might lead to a virtual tie in the delegate count, which
to some extent is what happened.
Super Tuesday: On
February 5,
2008, the largest-ever simultaneous number of state
U.S. presidential primary elections was held.[19]
Twenty-four states and
American Samoa held either
caucuses
or
primary elections for one or both parties on this date, leaving the
Democrats in a virtual tie, and John McCain just short of clinching the
Republican nod.[20]
Louisiana and Washington voted for both parties on February 9, while
Nebraska and the Virgin Islands vote for the Democrats and Kansas for
the Republicans. Obama swept all four Democratic contests, as well as
the Maine caucuses the next day,[21]
and Huckabee also came out on top in Kansas, winning by an even greater
percentage. The District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia voted for
both parties on February 12 in the so-called
Potomac primary. Obama won all three for the Democrats (giving him
eight consecutive victories after Super Tuesday) and McCain took all
three for the Republicans.
Obama carried both Hawaii and Wisconsin, the last two states that
voted for the Democrats in February, on the 19th.[22]
Wisconsin and Washington (primary) voted for the Republicans on February
19th; John McCain won these states.[23]
The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will close out February for the
Republicans, on the 23rd and 24th.
March 2008
For the Republicans, American Samoa voted March 1. March 4 was dubbed
by some as this year's
Mini Tuesday,[24][25]
when the delegate-rich states of Texas and Ohio, along with Rhode Island
and Vermont, voted for both parties. Wyoming then votes for the
Democrats and Guam votes for the Republicans on March 8, with
Mississippi then voting on March 11.
In what some considered a surprise upset of Barack Obama on March 4th[26],
Hillary Clinton carried Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island in the Democratic
primaries.[27]
John McCain clinched the Republican nomination after sweeping all four
primaries, Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island, putting him over the
top of the 1,191 delegates required to win the GOP nomination.[27]
Mike Huckabee finally conceded the race to McCain.
[28]
Final primaries and caucuses, April
through June 2008
Only one state votes in April: Pennsylvania, which will hold a
primary for both parties on April 22. Indiana and North Carolina have
primaries on May 6. Nebraska's Republican primary will be on May 13, as
will the West Virginia primary for Democrats. Kentucky and Oregon hold
primaries for both parties on May 20. Idaho votes for Republicans only
on May 27. The primary season ends in June, with contests on June 3 in
New Mexico (Republican), Montana (Democratic), and South Dakota (both
parties). The final primary will be on June 7th in Puerto Rico for the
Democrats.
Later events
- April 2008:
2008 Constitution Party National Convention, to be held in
Kansas City, Missouri. - May 23-26, 2008:
2008 Libertarian National Convention, to be held in
Denver, Colorado. - July 10-13, 2008:
Green Party National Convention, to be held in
Chicago, Illinois. - August 25-28, 2008:
2008 Democratic National Convention, to be held in Denver,
Colorado. - September 1-4, 2008:
2008 Republican National Convention, to be held in
Saint Paul, Minnesota. -
November 4,
2008: All
50 states and the
District of Columbia
will hold elections to select members of the Electoral College.
-
December 15,
2008:
Members of the U.S. Electoral College meet in each state to cast their
votes for President and Vice President. -
January 6,
2009:
Electoral votes officially tallied before both Houses of Congress. If
a member of Congress wishes to object to the certification of a
state's electoral votes as was originally reported on Election Night,
he or she must do so at this point, even if recounts or lawsuits to
require a recount are already in progress. -
January 20,
2009:
Inauguration Day.
Candidates
|
|
This article contains information about
one or more candidates in an upcoming or ongoing election. Content may change as the election approaches. |
 |
The
neutrality of this section is disputed. Please see the discussion on the talk page. This section has been tagged since February 2008. |
Politicians with ambition have begun to express formally their desire
for the presidency in the form of "exploratory
committees," which allow the hopeful to raise money and travel
without having to follow certain financial restrictions mandated by
federal law. With official events, such as debates and candidate forums,
beginning as early as February 2007, the status of a candidate will be
based on whether or not he or she is invited. Several minor candidates
in the past have tried to litigate their way in, generating some
publicity but little public support.
Candidates marked with a † have not registered with the
Federal Election Commission for a presidential campaign.
Major parties
Democratic Party
Candidates for the
Democratic Party
|
|
|
|
Withdrawn candidates
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Candidate | Actual pledged delegates1 (2,215.5 of 3,253 total) |
Predicted pledged delegates2 (2,533 of 3,253 total) |
Estimated superdelegates2 (437 of 796 total) |
Estimated total delegates2 (2,970 of 4,047 total; 2,024 needed to win) |
||||||
|
Hillary Rodham Clinton |
1,079.5 | 1,186 | 238 | 1,424 | ||||||
|
Mike Gravel |
- | - | - | - | ||||||
|
Barack Obama |
1,124 | 1,321 | 199 | 1,520 | ||||||
|
Joe Biden |
- | - | - | - | ||||||
|
Chris Dodd |
- | - | - | - | ||||||
|
John Edwards |
- | 26 | - | 26 | ||||||
|
Dennis Kucinich |
- | - | - | - | ||||||
|
Bill Richardson |
- | - | - | - | ||||||
|
||||||||||
| Sources: 1 "Primary Season Election Results", The New York Times, (regularly updated). 2 "Election Center 2008 Primaries and Caucuses: Results: Democratic Scorecard", CNN, (regularly updated). |
|
|||||||||
Republican Party
Presumptive Nominee for the
Republican Party
John McCain
President George W. Bush and Senator McCain at the White House
March 5, 2008 following McCain's March 4 primary sweep.
John McCain, born
August 29,
1936, in the U.S.-controlled
Panama Canal Zone,
U.S. Senator from
Arizona.
Often characterized as a Republican maverick in the Senate, he is
well-known. In
2000, he failed in his attempt against
George W. Bush for the Republican nomination: McCain continued his
ultimately unsuccessful campaign long after the other Republican
candidates had united behind Bush. McCain's
bipartisan compromise on judicial nominations and his strong support
of
campaign finance reform have drawn the ire of many groups, many of
which have vowed to work against any McCain campaigns for the Republican
nomination in
2008. He has a strong stance on many issues and economically falls
more along the lines of traditional "fiscal
conservatism." These factors, along with his commitment to the
War on Terror (including Iraq) have boosted his popularity amongst
conservatives since
2004, when
he emphasized these traits while stumping for Republican candidates.
Mathematically Eliminated Candidates
|
|
|
Withdrawn Candidates
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Candidates | Actual pledged delegates1 (1,482 of 1,917) |
Estimated total delegates2 (1,816 of 2,380; 1,191 needed to win) |
|||||||
|
Mike Huckabee |
225 | 270 | |||||||
|
John McCain |
1,110 | 1,260 | |||||||
|
Ron Paul |
- | 14 | |||||||
|
Mitt Romney |
- | 272 | |||||||
|
|
|
||||||||
| Sources: 1 "Primary Season Election Results", The New York Times, (regularly updated). 2 "2008 Elections - Republican Delegate Count", Real Clear Politics, (regularly updated). 3 "McCain wins Republican nomination", BBC News, 2008-03-05. |
|||||||||
Other parties
Constitution Party
Candidates for the
Constitution Party:
-
Don J. Grundmann† of
California. Chiropractor and anti-tax protester. - Bryan Malatesta† of
Texas[29]
Constitution Party of Texas chairman. - Max Riekse of
Michigan.† Retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel -
Diane Beall Templin† of California.[30]
Attorney and political activist.
Green Party
Candidates for the
Green Party (Official
Press Release):
|
|
|
- Jesse Johnson† of
West Virginia, former
Mountain Party candidate for
US Senate and
Governor of West Virginia -
Kent Mesplay of
California, California Delegate to the Green National Committee
Libertarian Party
Candidates for the
Libertarian Party:
|
|
|
|
- James Burns, former chairman of the
Nevada
Libertarian Party - Bob Jackson of
Michigan. Engineer and entreprenuer. - Mike Jingozian of
Oregon.
Software company founder. -
George Phillies of
Massachusetts. College professor, writer, political activist. - Christine Smith of
Colorado. Writer, humanitarian activist.
Prohibition Party
Nominee of the
Prohibition Party:
Gene Amondson† of
Washington. Minisiter and
temperance movement activist. He received the party's presidential
nomination at its national convention on September 13, 2007.[33]
Leroy Pletten of
Michigan is the vice presidential candidate.
Socialist Party USA
Nominee of the
Socialist Party USA:
Brian Moore of
Florida
received the party's presidential nomination at its national convention,
October 19-21, 2007.[34]
Stewart Alexander is the vice presidential candidate.
Socialist Workers Party
Nominee for the
Socialist Workers Party:
Róger Calero of
New
York. Journalist.
[35]
Alyson Kennedy is the vice presidential candidate.
Independents
 Ralph Nader of Connecticut. Consumer advocate and activist, [36] Matt Gonzalez, political acvitist, of California is his running mate.[37] |
Possible electoral college changes
National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
- Further information:
National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
The Compact, if passed by states representing a controlling majority
of the electoral college, would require states cast their electoral
votes for the national popular winner, essentially shifting the election
to a popular vote. As of
January 13,
2008, Maryland and New Jersey have enacted the law.[38]
District of Columbia House Voting Rights
Act
In 2007, Delegate
Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-District
of Columbia) introduced the "DC
House Voting Rights Act"[39]
in the United States House of Representatives. If enacted, the act would
have the effect of increasing the size of the electoral college by one.
The bill's primary purpose is to give House representation to the
District of Columbia, alongside an additional electoral college vote
award to Utah
in order to balance the addition. The effect is valid only until the
next census, when the extra seat will be reapportioned like all
other seats. The likely outcome of the change, if enacted, on the 2008
presidential election would be to give a +1 advantage to the Republican
candidate: Utah has not been carried by a Democratic presidential
candidate since
1964, and in the most recent election gave the Republican 71% of the
vote. Even though the size of the electoral college would increase to
539, a candidate would still need 270 electoral votes to win. The bill
as not been brought back up vote discussion since it was nearly clotured
in September 2007.
Presidential Election Reform Act
(California)
- Further information:
Presidential Election Reform Act
There was a proposed
initiative in the state of California to alter the way the state's
electoral votes for president are distributed among presidential
candidates, but the initiative failed to get onto the 2008 ballot.[40]
Potential battleground states
 |
This section needs additional
citations for verification. Please help improve this article by adding reliable references. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. (January 2008) |
Pundits and political experts have identified certain
battleground states where close votes might prove crucial to the
outcome of the election. These states could include, but may not be
limited to:
- Electoral College votes in parentheses
Potential battleground states (purple). Numbers reflect the
amount of electoral votes each state holds. Likely Republican
states are red, likely Democratic states are blue
-
Arkansas: (6) Arkansas has given it's electoral votes to the
winning candidate in every presidential election since 1972. Although
Arkansans tend to be more socially conservative than Americans
generally, the Democratic Party is a powerful force in Arkansas and
Democrats tend to have a comfortable advantage in statewide races.
Presently, the Governor, both U.S. Senators, and three out of four of
the Arkansas' House members are Democrats, and Democrats enjoy
supermajority status in the state legislature. The Arkansas Democratic
Party tends to be more conservative than the national party, however,
and as a result voters there tend to be open to Republican
Presidential candidates. Though
favorite son Bill Clinton won Arkansas easily both times he ran,
Arkansas gave their electoral votes to Bush in 2000 and 2004 by a
fairly large margin. Arkansas has a large
African American population, which could favor the Democratic
candidate. -
Colorado: (9) The Centennial State is holding its second
Democratic National Convention in Denver after 100 years. The
election of
Ken Salazar, a Hispanic-American to the U.S. Senate;
Bill Ritter to the Governorship in 2006 and a U.S. House seat
pick-up in 2006 made it a prized apple for the Democrats, prompting
DNC Chairman
Howard Dean to claim that the West holds the key to victory in
2008, which effectively made
Denver the location of the Convention. A strong
Hispanic-American concentration and the attention brought to bear
on such issues as immigration reform,
labor union support and minimum wage have made this a possible
Democratic state. Republicans, however, still claim this state because
of their support of gun rights and their stance on social conservative
issues, and pundits have marked Colorado as the initial favorite for
the Republicans.[attribution
needed] -
Florida: (27) The deciding state in 2000, whose votes went –
narrowly and controversially – to George W. Bush. Florida is situated
in the South, which has become a Republican stronghold. Experts agree
that the winner of Florida will have a significant advantage towards
advancing to the
White House. Florida has trended toward the Republican Party since
2000. For Democrats, the vote of the elderly is seen as a potential
boon, due to the party's traditional stance on
Medicare and
Social Security (two key components of winning the elderly vote),
while Republicans have an advantage with their stance on tax cuts and
values issues. The
Hispanic and African American populations in Florida could also
give the Democrats an edge in a close race. As for Republicans, the
business attention of tax cuts and
Cuban-American attention has made it a strong contender. Also,
Florida's recently-elected governor, Republican
Charlie Crist, has enjoyed high approval ratings and has been
mentioned as a possible vice presidential nominee on the 2008 GOP
ticket. -
Indiana: (11) Traditionally a Republican stronghold but in
2006, Democrats won three house seats here. Another factor that
may drag down the Republican ticket might be Governor
Mitch Daniels, who has become very unpopular in the state. Also in
2006, Democrats gained control of State House. The state has not voted
for a Democratic Presidential Nominee since
Lyndon Johnson in 1964, but a poll out by the
Indianapolis Star features a generic Democrat leading a
generic Republican in the Presidential election 37%-32%.[41]
The poll shows the
War
in Iraq and the sluggish
economy to be the biggest issues among Hoosiers. Also, the poll
found that a Democratic ticket featuring Indiana Senator
Evan Bayh would boost the possibility of Indiana switching
alliances. - Iowa:
(7) Iowa is a true toss up state; it went for Gore in 2000 and Bush in
2004. In 2006, Democrats retained control of the Governor's Mansion
with the election of
Chet Culver and the addition of two U.S. House seats. Also, for
the first time in four decades, Democrats gained complete control of
the state legislature, further enhancing the progress of the
Democrats. Still, agriculture policies and conservative values make it
a magnet for the Republicans. -
Kentucky: (8) With a Democratic pick-up of the Governor's Mansion
in November 2007, and a troubled state Republican Party, Kentucky will
be in play. Republican Governor
Ernie Fletcher was defeated for re-election on November 6, 2007,
and Senators
Mitch McConnell and
Jim Bunning's approval have dropped recently. McConnell, the
Senate Minority Leader, is up for re-election in 2008. Although it
went to the Republicans in 2000 and 2004 by strong margins, it was
previously won by Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. Pundits have put
Kentucky in the Republican column. -
Michigan: (17) The Great Lakes State has been a fairly safe bet
for the Democrats in recent decades, giving its substantial electoral
votes to Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and
John Kerry. However, with each election, the margin of victory has
narrowed, opening a window for the Republicans. Populism and a
historically strong labor movement have dominated the state and given
Democrats an advantage, but Republicans have gained ground in
advancing tax cuts and other social issues appealing to "Reagan
Democrats". A population exodus from Democratic Detroit has made
the conservative Republican west more influential. Still, Democratic
governor
Jennifer Granholm was soundly re-elected in 2006, while presiding
over a one-state recession. -
Minnesota: (10) Minnesota has been a traditionally Democratic
state in recent decades, but in the past two presidential elections,
the elections have been competitive between the GOP and Democratic
candidates. The 2008 Minnesota U.S. Senate election is also stated to
be competitive, with Republican
Norm Coleman running for re-election and commentator
Al Franken actively seeking the Democratic nomination. The
Republicans are holding their National Convention in
Saint Paul hoping to sway the election toward Republicans this
time. The last Republican presidential candidate to win in Minnesota
was President Richard Nixon in 1972; since then, it has generally been
solid ground for the Democrats. But in 2000 and 2004, the margin of
victory was small, encouraging multiple visits by candidates in both
parties. In 2006, however, the
Democratic Farmer Labor Party picked up a house seat and gained 19
legislative seats and six
state senate seats. -
Missouri: (11) The Show Me State has been long been dubbed the
bellwether for the nation because historically it has correlated
very closely with the national
Zeitgeist – with the single exception of 1956, Missouri has
supported the winner of every Presidential election since 1904. The
home state of President Harry Truman leans slightly Republican, and
granted its 11 electoral votes to Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Despite
the relative strength of Republicans in this Midwestern state, it has
a strong penchant for advancing populist causes such as
stem cell research and
universal health care. In 2006, Missouri elected its first female
U.S. Senator in Democrat
Claire McCaskill. Moreover, the national mood souring over the
war in Iraq makes this state a strong possibility for the
Democrats. -
Nevada: (5) Although Nevada has historically leaned Republican,
the high concentration of labor unions and
Hispanic-American vote make it a potential battleground state.
(Its 2006 Gubernatorial election was particularly competitive, and
Republican
Jim Gibbons won only by a slim margin.) The
Las Vegas metropolitan area with its dramatic increase in
population has become an attractive destination for Democratic
campaign resources, and Republicans are buoyed by the strong
disapproval ratings of Gibbons (29% approval rating as of March 2007)
and Bush (34% approval rating as of March 2007).[42]
Furthermore, Nevada has, with the single exception of 1976, been won
by the victor of every US Presidential election since 1912, a record
which makes it a secondary bellwether state. -
New Hampshire: (4) Once very reliably Republican, New Hampshire
became a swing state in the 1990s. Republicans still have somewhat of
an edge in statewide elections, however the Democrats took control of
the state legislature and both Congressional seats in 2006. The New
Hampshire Republican Party tends to be more socially liberal than the
national party, and as a result their behavior in national elections
is harder to determine. New Hampshire was the only state in the nation
that went for Bush in 2000 and then for Kerry in 2004, although by
narrow margins both times. -
New Mexico: (5) New Mexico has been long eschewed as a nominal
state, but that thinking has changed dramatically. With elections
being heavily contested and victories being decided by two or three
states, New Mexico has become one of the centers of political
fighting. In 2000, Gore won by a razor-thin margin and in 2004, Bush
won by a small, yet safe margin. These results have made experts
conclude that New Mexico's five electoral votes, even though small in
calculation, could tip the balance. New Mexico's large Hispanic and
Native American populations tend to vote Democrat, and could be
the key for a Democratic candidate in a close race. Its penchant for
populist streaks have made it an attraction for the Democrats, with
Gov. Bill Richardson joining the crowd for the Democratic nomination,
based on the calculation that Democrats need to win such Western
states to advance their path towards succeeding Bush. - Ohio:
(20) "I think 2008 is very likely to be a hotly contested race in
Ohio," stated Eric Rademacher, director of the
University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, for the
Cincinnati Enquirer.[43]
Its 20 electoral votes were critical to President Bush's reelection in
2004, and their tally was close enough to be contested. In 2006, Ohio
voters elected Democrats
Ted Strickland and
Sherrod Brown for Governor and U.S. Senator, respectively. -
Oregon: (7) A Democratic-leaning state, with generally strong
beliefs in
civil liberties and
liberal ideology on social issues. However, the eastern two-thirds
of the state often votes Republican, and in 2000 and 2004 George W.
Bush carried every county east of the Cascades. The state has gone to
the Democrats from the 1988 election onward. -
Pennsylvania: (21) Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth
Pedro A. Cortés stated on
March
17, 2007,
that "The commonwealth’s large number of electoral college votes and
diverse population make Pennsylvania a key battleground state."[44]
Pennsylvania has leaned Democratic since 1992, giving its electoral
votes to Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996), Gore (2000) and Kerry (2004).
President Bush visited the state more than 40 times during his 2004
campaign.[45] -
Tennessee: (11) Tennessee was not expected to be competitive in
2008, but recent polls have shown that Democrats could be very
competitive in the state. And while Tennessee did go to Bill Clinton
in 1992 and 1996, it has not been kind to Democrats in recent cycles.
It went against native son Al Gore in 2000; if Gore had won the state,
he would have emerged the victor. Tennessee joins other Southern
states like Kentucky that have not been competitive in recent memory,
but in which Democrats find themselves surprisingly competitive. -
Virginia: (13) No Democratic presidential candidate has won
Virginia since Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964, and it was
the only Southern state that went Republican in 1976. Virginia is no
longer as reliably Republican as it once was, as evidenced by Democrat
Tim
Kaine's victory in 2005 for the Governor's Mansion and
Jim
Webb's narrow victory in the 2006 Senate race against incumbent
Republican
George Allen. Additionally,
Northern Virginia, the fastest-growing region in the state, tends
to lean Democratic. Virginia also has a large
African American population, which could benefit a Democratic
candidate in a close race. On September 13, 2007, former Virginia
governor and Democrat
Mark Warner informally announced he will run for the Senate in
2008 for the seat of retiring Senator
John Warner. This notion is supported by a September 2007
Rasmussen Reports poll in which Mark Warner leads former Republican
governor Jim Gilmore 54% to 34% and Republican Congressman Thomas M.
Davis 57% to 30%. -
West Virginia: (5) Although registered Democrats in the state
outnumber registered Republicans, Bush narrowly won the state in both
the 2000 and 2004 elections with 52% and 56% of the vote respectively.
President Clinton won the state in both 1992 and 1996. -
Wisconsin: (10) Among the closest states in the nation, Wisconsin
very narrowly went to Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. These two
results were much closer than the results in prior elections, so it
could be possible Wisconsin is trending Republican in presidential
elections, though John Kerry won by a slightly larger margin than Gore
in 2000.
The potential battleground states listed above control a total of 207
electoral votes. Of the states that are not expected to be competitive,
148 electoral votes (Alabama,
Alaska,
Arizona,
Georgia,
Idaho,
Kansas,
Louisiana,
Mississippi,
Montana,
Nebraska,
North Carolina,
North Dakota,
Oklahoma,
South Carolina,
South Dakota,
Texas,
Utah,
Wyoming)
have been expected to go to the Republican party, while 183 (California,
Connecticut,
D.C.,
Delaware,
Hawaii,
Illinois,
Maine,
Maryland,
Massachusetts,
New
Jersey,
New
York,
Rhode Island,
Vermont,
Washington) are expected to go to the Democrats. Any of these may
become competitive as the election progresses.
Campaign details
Debates
In previous elections Candidates have regularly participated in
debates, in some of these candidates have accepted questions from the
audience in a Town Hall forum format. Unique to 2008 is the
CNN-YouTube presidential debates in which the Republicans and
Democrats each held debates in which questions came primarily from
YouTube viewer submitted videos, with 39 questions asked of the
Democrats and 31 of the Republican candidates about divisive issues
respective to each party. Some have argued that it gave better access to
candidates from voters in states with late primaries or in states where
candidates are unlikely to visit. Others cited that some questions were
frivolous and even others were planted.[46]
Campaign costs
The reported cost of campaigning for President has increased
significantly in recent years. One source reported that if the costs for
both
Democratic and
Republican campaigns are added together (for the Presidential
primary election, general election, and the political conventions) the
costs have more than doubled in only eight years ($448.9 million in
1996, $649.5 million in 2000, and $1.01 billion in 2004). In January
2007, Federal Election Commission Chairman
Michael Toner estimated that the 2008 race will be a $1 billion
election, and that to be taken seriously, a candidate needed to raise at
least $100 million by the end of 2007.[47]
Although he has said that he will not be running for president,
published reports indicate that
billionaire and New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg has been
considering a presidential bid with $1 billion of his own fortune to
finance it.[48]
Should Bloomberg decide to run as an independent, he would not need to
campaign in the primary elections or participate in the conventions,
greatly reducing both the necessary length and cost of his campaign.
With the increase in money, the public financing system funded by the
presidential election campaign fund checkoff has not been used by
many candidates. So far, John McCain,[49]
Tom Tancredo,[50]
John Edwards,[51]
Chris Dodd,[52]
and Joe Biden[53]
have qualified for and elected to take public funds in the primary.
Other major candidates have eschewed the low amount of spending
permitted and have chosen not to participate.
Internet campaigns
Howard Dean collected large contributions via the internet in his
2004 primary run. In 2008 candidates have gone even further in reaching
out to Internet users through their own sites and through sites such as
YouTube[54]
MySpace,[55]
and
Facebook.[55]
Republican
Ron
Paul[56][57]
and Democratic Party candidate
Barack Obama have been the most active in courting voters through
the
Internet.[58]
On
December 16,
2007, Ron
Paul
collected more money on a single day through Internet donations than
any presidential candidate in US history with over $6 million.[59][60][61]
Anonymous and semi-anonymous smear campaigns traditionally done with
fliers and push calling have also spread to the Internet.[62]
Yahoo! Answers has become a platform for an ongoing Q & A process
for voters to ask and answer questions posed by
presidential candidates and US voters.[63]
New Hampshire primary controversy
Voter fraud was alleged after the New Hampshire primary revealed
that precincts counting ballots by hand produced different results than
precincts which counted ballots electronically.[64]
The story initially was reported only online, but was later acknowledged
by mainstream news outlets. Most observers have concluded that
demographic trends influence both a community's means of counting
ballots, and which candidates the community is likely to support.[65]
A recount was requested and paid for by Democratic candidate Dennis
Kucinich and Republican candidate Albert Howard.[66]
The Deputy Secretary of State, David Scanlan, estimated that the
Republican recount cost $57,600 and the Democratic recount, with more
votes cast, cost $67,600.[67]
In some of the towns and wards, the vote counts have been identical.
Vote count changes have been made in places where voters did not follow
directions and marked ballots that were impossible for the machines to
read. The largest example of vote miscounting was Ward 5 in
Manchester, where votes for the top candidates dropped significantly
after the recount. Clinton's total went from 683 to 619, Obama's went
from 404 to 365, and other candidates saw similar drops.[68]
Excluding the results of Ward 5 the error rate was less than 1%.[69]
The official explanation for the discrepancies in Ward 5, which resulted
in gains of nearly 10% by each of the top candidates, was that a poll
worker added the vice presidential and presidential totals before
reporting.[70]
These differences did not occur in the GOP recount where the votes for
all candidates were exactly the same except for Mitt Romney who received
1 extra vote.[71]
As Howard received only 44 votes, the hefty price tag was paid for in
part by Ron Paul supporters, although Ron Paul did not specifically
request the recount.[72]
According to Howard's campaign Web site, some of his primary
objectives include banning electronic voting.[73]
Quin Monson, an assistant professor in the Department of Political
Science at
BYU, commented: "There are people that do not trust the technology.
His (Dennis Kucinich's) request for the recount is likely a response to
that crowd."[74]
Opinion polling
-
Opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008 -
Opinion polling by state for the United States presidential election,
2008 -
Nationwide opinion polling for the Democratic Party 2008 presidential
candidates -
Nationwide opinion polling for the Republican Party 2008 presidential
candidates -
Statewide opinion polling for the Democratic Party presidential
primaries, 2008 -
Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party presidential
primaries, 2008
Election results
-
Results of the 2008 Republican Party presidential primaries -
Results of the 2008 Democratic Party presidential primaries
See also
-
March 7:
Wikinews interviews U.S. Green Party presidential candidate
Cynthia McKinney -
March 6:
George W. Bush endorses John McCain for US Presidency -
March 5:
Wikinews interviews Anthony Maki -
March 5:
McCain clinches Republican nomination as Huckabee concedes -
March 3:
Wikinews interviews Frank Moore, independent candidate for US
President
-
History of the United States (1991 - present) -
Democratic Presidential Debates, 2008 -
Republican Presidential Debates, 2008 -
United States general elections, 2008 -
Opinion polling by state for the United States presidential election,
2008 -
Swing state -
Timeline -
United States Election Night Television Coverage -
United States Democratic vice presidential candidates, 2008 -
United States Republican vice presidential candidates, 2008
References
-
^ "Transcript:
Vice President Cheney on 'FOX News Sunday'", FOXNews.com,
2005-02-07.
Retrieved on
2006-11-14. -
^ Harnden, Toby. "The
top US conservatives and liberals", Telegraph.co.uk,
2007-11-13.
Retrieved on
2008-01-10. -
^
O. Hatfield, Mark.
Vice Presidents of the United States: Alben W. Barkley (PDF)
423-429. Senate. -
^ "Historical
Election Results: Electoral College Box Scores 1789-1996",
U.S. Electoral College /
Office of the Federal Register,
U.S. National Archives and Records Administration. - ^
a
b "Historical
Election Results: Electoral College Box Scores 2000-2004",
U.S. Electoral College /
Office of the Federal Register,
U.S. National Archives and Records Administration. -
^ Balz, Dan. "Candidates
Unite in Criticizing Bush", The Washington Post,
2007-04-27.
Retrieved on
2007-05-30. -
^ "Winners
& Losers",
Chuck Todd,
MSNBC,
May 15,
2007. -
^ "Campaign
Finance: First Quarter 2007 FEC Filings",
The Washington Post 2007. -
^
Paul Raises More Than $3.5M in One Day. -
^
Ron Paul says he's broken one-day online fundraising record - On
Politics - USATODAY.com. -
^ Z. Byron Wolf. "Who
are Ron Paul's Donors?",
2007-11-06.
Retrieved on
2008-01-30. -
^
Ron Paul, Validated and Vindicated? - Public Eye. -
^
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3160177.ece -
^
www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqGl-pDnYMQ. -
^
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22641730/ -
^
http://www.thestar.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=4288771 -
^
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZiNtTq10i0. -
^
http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/2008/02/clinton_win_in.html -
^ Greene, Richard Allen (2007-05-30).
States jostle for primary power.
BBC
News. Retrieved on
2007-06-03. -
^
Presidential primary and caucus dates (PDF).
Stateline.org 1.
Pew Research Center (2007-08-30).
Retrieved on
2007-08-31. -
^
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#ME -
^
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914 -
^
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914 -
^
[1] -
^
[2] -
^ "Clinton
comeback: Fight goes on", Seattle Times,
March
5, 2008.
Retrieved on
2008-03-05. - ^
a
b "Clinton
wins key primaries, CNN projects; McCain clinches nod", CNN,
March
5, 2008.
Retrieved on
2008-03-05. -
^ "Huckabee
bows to 'inevitable,' ends GOP run",
March
5, 2008.
Retrieved on
2008-03-05. -
^
Candidate Profile: Bryan Malatesta. TheAmericanVoters.com.
Retrieved on
2007-10-05. -
^
Escondido Attorney Makes Another Attempt at White House,
Metropolitan News-Enterprise 2007-08-07 -
^
www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_7202195. -
^
FEC Disclosure Reports - Filer ID P80004930. -
^
Prohibition Party National Convention - 2007:Third and Fourth
Sessions -
^
"Socialist Party Ticket is Moore-Alexander", Ballot Access News. -
^
The Militant - Vol. 72/No. 2 - January 14, 2008 - front page. -
^
AFP: Nader mixes up 2008 race with new White House run -
^ Alexovich, Ariel. "Nader
Announces Pick for Vice President", The New York Times,
2008-02-28. -
^
Trenton: State Backs Electoral College Change - New York Times. -
^
H.R. 1905 -
^ Shane Goldmacher,
"Electoral college measure falls short," February 5, 2008. -
^
War, economy have red state thinking blue. -
^ "Poll:
Gibbons Lagging Bush",
Molly Ball,
Las Vegas Review-Journal,
March 14,
2007. -
^
Intense 2008 election forecast for Ohio. -
^ "Rendell
Administration Supports Giving Pennsylvanians a Voice in
Presidential Primary", Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Department
of State,
March 13,
2007. -
^
Bush, Kerry in Reach of Electoral Win, Washington Post,
10/30/2004. -
^
-
-
^ Kirkpatrick, David. "Death
Knell May Be Near for Public Election Funds", New York Times,
2007-01-23.
Retrieved on
2008-01-04. -
^ Smith, Ben. "Billion-Dollar
elephant inches toward run", 'The Politico', The
Politico,
June
19,
2007. Retrieved on
July 19, 2007. -
^
McCain certification. -
^
tancredo certification. -
^
edwards certification. -
^
dodd eligible. -
^
Biden cert. -
^ "Questions,
not answers, highlight YouTube debate", CNN,
July
24,
2007. - ^
a
b "Candidates
court young voters online",
Stephanie Garry,
St. Petersburg Times,
June 8,
2007. -
^
Ron Paul's Web of support: He's an 'online natural'
USA Today -
^
Ron Paul's Online Rise
US News -
^
http://www.hitwise.com/political-data-center/key-candidates.php
Hitwise political data center -
^
'Money bomb': Ron Paul raises $6 million in 24-hour period -
USATODAY.com. -
^
Sign Up. -
^
Ron Paul makes fund raising history. -
^ Reid, Tim. "Palmetto
Bugs: Slingers of Slime Step it up in SC",
The New York Post,
2007-11-23. -
^ ""Obama
follows Clinton, McCain to Yahoo Answers", CNET News.com,
2007-03-27. " -
^
VOTE FRAUD Archives whatreallyhappened.com -
^
[3] Experts skeptical of N.H. ballot-count conspiracy theory,
The Boston Globe -
^
Kucinich claim spurs N.H. recount Boston Herald -
^
Union Leader - Manchester, New Hampshire. -
^
Human Error, Not Machine, Found During Recount - Politics News Story
- WMUR Manchester. -
^
Diebold Vote Error in New Hampshire < 00.948%. -
^
Human Error, Not Machine, Found During Recount - Politics News Story
- WMUR Manchester. -
^
NHPrimary.com: Recounting and recalling the N.H. presidential
primary. -
^
NHPrimary.com: Recounting and recalling the N.H. presidential
primary. -
^
BYU NewsNet - New Hampshire Recount Garners Little Attention. -
^
BYU NewsNet - New Hampshire Recount Garners Little Attention.
External links
-
2008 Presidential Candidates and Campaigns at the
Open Directory Project -
Wikia:campaigns:United States presidential election, 2008 and
Wikia:campaigns:Category:2008 US Presidential candidates -
Project Vote Smart - 2008 Presidential Candidates -
Council on Foreign Relations - Campaign 2008 -
The Pew Forum - Religion & Politics 2008 -
Select2008 - to compare and choose candidates to the 2008
presidential election -
Who Is Who in the 2008 Elections -
Candidate Videos at Election.tv -
Glance on the USA : comments, biography of all the candidates,
polls... -
List of all presidential candidates for the 2008 Election -
Lindsay politics 101-Blog coverage of all elections -
US Election 2008 Web Monitor - News, blog, NGO and corporate
coverage -
2008 Election at
ProCon.org
- Campaign contributions
-
FEC - Presidential Campaign Finance -
OpenSecrets.org - Race for the White House -
Campaign Contributions to Presidential Candidates in the 2008 Election
- News media
-
US Elections 2008 from
Guardian Unlimited -
Campaign '08 from
The Los Angeles Times -
Presidential Election of 2008 from
The New York Times -
Vote 2008 from
The Online NewsHour -
Presidential Candidates from
The Wall Street Journal -
The Presidential Field from
The Washington Post -
BBC News US Elections 2008 from
BBC
News
|
[show] United
|
|---|
|
[show] |
|---|
Categories:
Future elections in the United States |
Future election candidates |
United States presidential election, 2008
Interaction
-
About us-presidentialelection.blogspot.com -
Community portal -
Recent changes -
Contact us-presidentialelection.blogspot.com -
Donate to us-presidentialelection.blogspot.com -
Help
Toolbox
-
What links here -
Related changes -
Upload file -
Special pages -
Printable version -
Permanent link -
Cite this page
Languages
-
Deutsch -
Eesti -
Español -
فارسی -
Français -
한국어 -
Hrvatski -
Bahasa Indonesia -
Italiano -
עברית -
Magyar -
Bahasa Melayu -
Nederlands -
日本語 -
Polski -
Português -
Română -
Русский -
Suomi -
Svenska -
ไทย -
Türkçe -
ייִדיש -
粵語 -
中文
- This page was last modified on 7 March 2008, at 20:28.
- All text is available under the terms of the
GNU Free Documentation License. (See
Copyrights for details.)
us-presidentialelection.blogspot.com® is a registered trademark of the
Wikimedia Foundation, Inc.,
a U.S. registered
501(c)(3)
tax-deductible
nonprofit
charity.
-
Privacy policy -
About us-presidentialelection.blogspot.com -
Disclaimers
No comments:
Post a Comment